Original title: 30 million orders cut, Samsung revised next year’s smartphone shipment target!

On November 14th, according to Korean and Taiwan media reports, as the smartphone market continues to decline, Samsung, the world’s largest smartphone manufacturer, plans to significantly lower its forecast for next year’s smartphone shipments by 13%. In conversion, it is estimated that about 30 million units will be cut, mainly involving the mid-to-low-end models of the A-series and M-series, which are Samsung’s main sales force. pressure.

Recently, Samsung Electronics stated at a business briefing meeting with major partners that next year Samsung’s smartphone shipment target is close to 270 million units. 290 million units is a decrease of 20 million units, which is a decrease of 30 million units compared with this year’s shipment target.

Samsung’s smartphone shipment target in recent years has been below 300 million units, and there has been no growth since shipments peaked at 320 million in 2017. However, Samsung has high expectations for the high-end mobile phone market, so it has increased the proportion of shipments of S-series flagship phones and folding screen phones. The orders for the mid- and low-end M-series and A-series have shrunk.

According to industry insiders, the M series and A series are the main sales force of Samsung’s smartphones. The recent global inflation continues to be high, and the low-end models bear the brunt, while the high-end models are less affected.

According to the latest data from market research firm Canalys, Samsung is still the smartphone brand manufacturer with the highest market share in the world, with a market share of about 22%. Samsung took the lead in slashing its shipment target for next year, which will have indicative significance for the smartphone industry. This not only means that Samsung is not optimistic about the smartphone market next year, but may also drive other smartphone brand manufacturers to follow up.

It is worth noting that in late October this year, the market research organization TrendForce stated that the proportion of Apple’s iPhone 14 Pro series production has increased from 50% to 60%, and may increase to 65% in the future. However, due to the impact of global inflation, consumers’ purchasing power has weakened. , It is expected that the production of iPhones in the first quarter of next year will drop from the original estimate of 56 million units to 52 million units, a year-on-year cut of 14%.

Apple launched the new iPhone 14 series in September this year, but there has been a bipolar market of “high-end models are hot, and affordable models are cold”, which also forced Apple to urgently reduce production of affordable models. Hon Hai Chairman Liu Yangwei also confirmed at the law conference a few days ago that among its four major categories of products, the consumer smart product category (mainly the iPhone) is expected to perform the weakest next year, which may be slightly worse than this year.

At present, the global smartphone industry is suffering from sluggish sales and slow depletion of inventory. As the two major mobile phone giants, Apple and Samsung, have reported that they will cut their shipment targets for next year, the market expects that next year Xiaomi, OPPO, vivo and other mainland mobile phone manufacturers will It is also likely to follow up and cut orders. This wave of market cold wind may not be able to stop in a short time, and the snowball effect on the supply chain is not optimistic.

According to industry insiders, Samsung and Apple are the top two brands with the best sales in the world. Now they must reduce production and accelerate destocking, not to mention other mobile phone brand factories. It is estimated that sales may be revised down next year.

Previously, some manufacturers in the industry expected that the smartphone market is expected to gradually stabilize and recover in the first half of next year. MediaTek CEO Cai Lixing was also relatively optimistic at the law conference before, and he is optimistic that some of the momentum of purchases has been restored this season, which may mean that there will be opportunities to see more demand for inventory replenishment in the first half of next year.

However, suppliers of key mobile phone components such as Murata, Yageo, Tongxin Electronics, and Duntai are generally bearish on the smartphone market next year.

As the world’s leading manufacturer of passive component multilayer ceramic capacitors (MLCC), Murata is also a key supplier in the smartphone industry chain, providing electronic modules and components for Samsung, Apple and other major mainland mobile phone brands. Murata President Kiku Nakajima has previously warned that there should be no signs of recovery in demand for smartphones in the Greater China region this year, and even next year smartphone sales will continue this year’s downward trend.

Yageo, a leader in Taiwan’s passive components, said that due to the variables of the mainland’s epidemic prevention and control, coupled with the fact that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has not ended, the demand for consumer electronics terminals such as notebook computers and smartphones has slowed down. It is estimated that the adjustment of standard product inventory will take about six months Time goes away.

Tongxin Electronics, a major COMS image sensor (CIS) packaging manufacturer, also stated that the inventory of the client side in the smartphone market continues to rise, and mobile phone image sensor component suppliers may need more than two to three quarters to eliminate inventory. It is estimated that the second quarter of next year After the end of the third quarter, Tongxin’s electronics-related business will rebound.

According to previous Korean media reports, among the 64 smartphones and tablets launched by Samsung this year, about 14 models use MediaTek chips. Taiwan media predicts that MediaTek chips are mainly used by Samsung in the A-series and M-series, which are currently the models with the greatest impact on sales. In addition, there are constant rumors of mainland mobile phone brands cutting orders, which may be detrimental to MediaTek’s shipments.

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